Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 11.644163 13.066053 14.697559 16.732980 19.240692 22.279933 26.324624
2024-10-13 9.587511 11.230332 13.252891 15.992773 19.721196 24.808262 32.661436
2024-10-20 8.290276 9.958440 12.100743 15.156640 19.597781 26.186442 37.590485
2024-10-27 7.389019 9.038399 11.222979 14.462869 19.420121 27.298351 42.381309
2024-11-03 7.453444 9.373718 12.041991 16.254523 23.281452 35.906448 65.363394
2024-11-10 7.213960 9.250688 12.179144 17.020939 25.656977 42.840907 91.133541
2024-11-17 6.635575 8.586353 11.436651 16.255028 25.139732 43.784403 102.065371
2024-11-24 6.294112 8.235774 11.129870 16.161233 25.845634 47.673500 127.361968
2024-12-01 5.964815 7.875698 10.770658 15.921921 26.206155 50.903783 155.858839
2024-12-08 5.715566 7.616631 10.545409 15.885151 26.971198 55.548352 202.242475
2024-12-15 5.536996 7.451545 10.454584 16.076762 28.271408 62.429457 288.695054
2024-12-22 5.264811 7.123430 10.067706 15.661922 28.102222 64.709910 353.133155
2024-12-29 5.062892 6.907396 9.874570 15.644927 29.001096 71.684250 544.632618
2025-01-05 4.766911 6.525963 9.373797 14.966392 28.134464 71.784821 649.906267
2025-01-12 4.483141 6.150156 8.859374 14.211265 26.944821 70.125846 716.163502
2025-01-19 4.241191 5.830989 8.425289 13.582559 25.991430 69.127869 814.764760
2025-01-26 4.361509 6.103862 9.043693 15.202980 31.526531 103.036737 30036.606034
2025-02-02 4.331484 6.125455 9.213114 15.893076 34.729774 132.374207 NaN
2025-02-09 4.122857 5.836286 8.790995 15.203435 33.398269 129.413392 NaN
2025-02-16 4.004974 5.696007 8.638376 15.118856 34.056085 143.127417 NaN
2025-02-23 3.878564 5.535571 8.438217 14.902935 34.226806 153.683943 NaN
2025-03-02 3.782044 5.422196 8.320416 14.869743 35.042256 172.688085 NaN
2025-03-09 3.715064 5.356655 8.289692 15.042663 36.677857 206.450520 NaN